Public Opinion

I

Introduction

Public Opinion, attitudes, perspectives, and preferences of a population towards events, circumstances, and issues of mutual interest. It is characteristically measured by the sample survey or public-opinion poll.

II

Opinion Formation

Public opinion is shaped both by relatively permanent circumstances and by temporary influences. Among the former are the ideas that characterize the popular culture of a given place at a given time. In the West for example, the youth-oriented culture of the late-20th century affects the attitudes of many people towards ageing and the elderly. Other fairly permanent circumstances such as ethnic origin, religion, geographical location, economic status, and educational level can strongly influence the opinions of an individual or a particular group about many subjects. Certain temporary factors also affect the public's attitudes. Among these are the impact of current events, the opinions of influential or authoritative people, the effect of the mass communications media, and the concerted campaigns of public relations professionals.

III

History

The systematic measurement of public attitudes is a post-1930 development. Although occasionally opinion polls were conducted before the 1930s, they were generally neither systematic nor scientific. They dealt with unrepresentative samples or used methods that made certain people far more likely to be included in the poll than others. In “straw polls”, for example, the only people counted were those who volunteered to take part.

Public-opinion polling improved vastly in the 1930s when business and educational organizations began to develop methods that allowed the relatively unbiased selection of respondents and the systematic gathering of data from a wide cross section of the public. By present-day standards these polls were crude, but their results were in some ways useful. Among the pioneers was George Horace Gallup, inventor of the Gallup poll.

Two events in the United States encouraged polling agencies further to refine their methods. In 1936 a poll conducted by the Literary Digest incorrectly determined that the Republican candidate, Alf Landon, would win the US presidential election. The error arose largely because of biases that caused wealthy people to be overrepresented in the poll. In the 1948 election, most polls mistakenly predicted a victory for the Republican candidate, Thomas E. Dewey, instead of the Democratic incumbent, Harry S. Truman, again because poorer people were under-represented, and also because the polling agencies missed last-minute changes of attitude among the voting public. Since 1948 techniques of public-opinion research and polling have improved considerably. Efforts are now made to select respondents without bias, to improve the quality of questionnaires, and to train able and reliable interviewers.

IV

Uses

Opinion polls are generally accepted as useful tools by business, political organizations, the mass media, and governments as well as in academic research. Hundreds of public-opinion polling firms operate around the world. Best known are the organizations, such as the Gallup Poll, Mori Poll, and Harris Poll, the findings of which regularly appear in major newspapers.

In business, polls are used to test consumers' preferences and to discover what it is about a particular product that gives it appeal. Response to commercial polls aid in the planning of marketing and advertising strategies, and in making changes in a product to increase its sales.

In politics, polls are used to obtain information about voters' attitudes towards issues and candidates, to put forward candidates with winning potential, and to plan campaigns. Polling organizations have also been successful to a degree in predicting the outcome of elections. In addition, by polling voters on election day as they leave the polling stations (an exit poll), it is often possible to determine the probable winner even before the voting is closed.

Newspapers, magazines, radio, and television are heavy users of public-opinion polling information, especially political information that helps predict elections or gauge the popularity of government officials and candidates. The public's attitude towards various social, economic, and international issues is also considered newsworthy.

Governments use opinion polls to tap public sentiment about issues of interest. In addition, government agencies use polling methodology to determine unemployment rates, crime rates, and other social and economic indicators.

Polls have been employed extensively in academic research, particularly in the social sciences, where they have proven valuable in studying delinquency, socialization, political attitudes, and economic behaviour.